Monday 27 March 2017

Manipulating supply to raise prices

OPEC is a group of countries that produce oil and in the 1970's formed a cartel to try and raise the revenue they received from oil production. They were very successful then, but today there are many oil producers who are not members of OPEC and so their ability to influence the market has declined.

There is more oil production capacity than there is demand, and presently more oil is produced than the market wants. This situation of excess supply has depressed oil prices.

OPEC has tried to reduce supply from its members, with the cooperation of a few other countries, in order to raise oil prices. They succeeded, but the agreement is running out and there is talk of extending it.

There are some useful areas to investigate.

1. The oil price has fluctuated in anticipation of the agreement being renewed and to news about the level of oil stocks. Why?
2. The members of OPEC have an incentive to agree production limits and then cheat by producing more. Is this always true in cartels?
3. Why is the oil market producing so much more than the market requires? (The move away from fossil fuels and the rate of economic growth are both relevant here.)
4. Who gains and who loses from the lower oil price?

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