Thursday 9 March 2017

Is Quantitative Easing working in Europe?

The European Central Bank has been fighting the danger of deflation in the Euro Area. Deflation is a sustained fall in the general price level so that the purchasing power of money rises.

The purchasing power of money rising sounds good! However it is generally caused by low demand and so low growth, or even falling output. The most recent period of prolonged deflation occured during the Great Depression, and nobody wants to go back to that. When prices are falling consumers will wait to buy good and services as they expect them to become cheaper. The result is a downward spiral of prices and output.

The ECB has been using conventional expansionary monetary policy, interest rates are now 0%, and unconventional monetary policy, they are printing Euros through Quantitative Easing, in order to boost Aggregate Demand (AD) and so economic growth.

The report below suggests that this is now having some effect, but it is far from certain that a sustained upswing in output, wages and prices has yet been achieved, so they will continue the policy. (Note the difference in headline and core inflation which indicates that there is still some way to go before there is a sustained recovery.)

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