Thursday 6 March 2014

More good news!

Following on the growth figures it appears Australia is doing even better than thought.

Retail sales are growing strongly. This is more than good news for retailers and those who make the goods and services they sell. It suggests that Consumer Sentiment (consumer confidence) is very strong and this is good news for the national economy.

Households don't raise their spending when they are uncertain. When they are confident they spend and are prepared to borrow. This can lead to higher total (aggregate) consumption an important part of Aggregate Demand. Rising Aggregate Demand leads to higher growth and national income.

There is also news of a bigger than expected trade surplus - the amount that exports exceed imports. That means Australian firms are doing well in selling to overseas customers. Selling more means more jobs in Australia and that will help moderate the expected rise in unemployment.

Of course net exports (exports - imports) is also a part of Aggregate Demand. A larger trade surplus leads to a faster rise in AD and so faster growth.

Overall then the signs are that the slow down in growth caused by the winding down of the mining boom may be coming to an end. However the 'headwinds' causing the economy to slow remain strong, but the 'tailwinds' that speed the economy along seem to be getting a little stronger.
Australian Retail Sales - year on year change 2010 to present

Australia's Balance of Trade (Exports less Imports) 2011 to present

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