Monday 17 March 2014

Unemployment figures good and bad news


Apologies this post got stuck in drafts!

The latest employment figures show both unemployment and employment up. This seems strange.

The number of employed people rose 47,300 with full time employment up by 80,500 (there was a fall in part time employment which accounts for the difference).

This is really good news. Expectations was for around 10,000 new jobs, so this is well ahead of expectations. Although there has been good news recently, such as the retail sales data and trade balance, unemployment is usually a 'lagging indicator'. This means that when there is an upturn in the economy it is usually months before employment rises and it takes a while for unemployment to rise in a downturn.

However unemployment also rose by 9,800, and stands at 6% of the workforce. How can that come about?

The reason that both employment and unemployment rose is that the workforce itself increased. This often happens in Australia due to the relatively high net migration. 

There was also a rise in the participation rate by 0.2% to 64.8%. The participation rate tends to fall when people become discouraged from looking from work and so give up their search. When people are optimistic the participation rate rises as people are encouraged by the success of others to find work. Overall the rise in the participation rate is another good sign.


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