Trade figures may not be that relaible!

A Peking University professor has claimed that China is running a trade deficit. The Chinese government claims it is still running a huge trade surplus.

The Current Account surplus which people have generally believed China has been running is shown below from 1995.

The Current Account is made up of trade in goods and services, income and transfers. China has been thought to have a large surplus in goods and a smaller deficit in services.

A Current Account surplus implies an equivalent Financial and Capital Account deficit. However China does not allow the free transfer of capital. Therefore there can be a problem moving capital in or out of the country. The motive for controlling capital flows for China has a great deal to do with maintaining the exchange rate at the level they desire (a managed exchange rate).

Professor Balding is claiming there has been false accounting. Exporters overstating invoices to allow an inflow of capital into China in earlier years and now importers working to help capital flow out of China.

There are numerous issues here. Based on the fact the Balance of Payments must always balance (i.e. sum to zero) Professor Balding has found that China's trade performance has been overstated and the Chinese economy might not be doing as well as we thought. He has also given us an excellent example of how capital controls are only ever partially effective, someone always finds a way around them.

Forbes reports Professor Balding's findings here

IB students will find this article a good application of  the theory of the Balance of Payments and can use it to link to the performance of the real economy to the Current Account. VCE students will see how the Current and Financial accounts are linked.

Penalty rates. A story to watch.

The Productivity Commission in Australia are looking at a variety of work practise's and this includes whether penalty rates are set appropriately.

Penalty rates are generally called 'overtime rates' in the rest of the English speaking world. It refers to the 'bonus' paid to workers who work extra hours over their usual working week or work at anti-social times, such as weekends. In Australia these rates continue to be set on a national level and for particular industry's.

Some argue that the rates set are too high. In some industry's the rates can be 200% of normal wages. The graph below shows the rates for the hospitality industry.

The traditional argument on penalty rates is that they lead to lower employment. The higher the wage rate then the lower the demand for labour. The same argument can be applied to the minimum wage. The graph below shows the effect of a penalty rate, PR, set above the market wage rate W. The effect is to lower employment by N - Nd hours when penalty rates apply. Notice that Ns - Nd hours of work are offered by workers, but are not taken up (involuntary unemployment).

Another way of looking at this is that penalty rates will cause firms costs to be higher. This leads to market prices being pushed up and so output, and so employment, in an affected industry is lower. The diagram below shows this with the industry or firm supply curve SPR reflecting the higher costs of penalty rates compared to no penalty rates, SNR.

There is some doubt about this analysis. When firms have a great deal of power relative to their employees, as they do in retail and hospitality, they might be able to force wage rates below market rates (W). This means that penalty rates protect workers from profit maximising employers. 

There is also not much evidence to suggest firms close down, or don't operate, when penalty rates apply. 

Below are some articles that look at this issue. The Productivity Commission will give its final report around July, it is worth being ready for it.

The ABC looks at Commission proposals here

Q&A fact check claims on penalty rates here

This is good analytical practice for IB and VCE economists. It might be a fruitful area for IA's or EE's for IB students.

The link between exchange rates and monetary policy

The exchange rate of the Australian dollar (A$) has risen four cents against the US dollar (US$) in a few days. This was much against expectations and against the performance of other currencies against the US$.

This has significant implications for the Australian economy. The end of the mining investment boom and the fall in commodity prices have hit Australia hard. Fortunately the exchange rate has acted as a shock absorber and reduced the impact of these momentous changes in just a few years.

Following the end of the mining boom the Australian dollar weakened. This meant that the prices of Australian non-mining goods fell for the rest of the world and non-mining exports received a boost. This sector had suffered during the period of the high A$:US$ exchange rate and is now filling the gap left by commodity exports.

Commodities are traded in US$. So as the price of commodities fell, which they did significantly, at least the US$'s earned bought more A$ than they did before. This partly offset the price fall.

This has allowed the Australian economy to adjust rather more easily than would have been the case with a fixed exchange rate. (This shock absorber effect due to asymmetric shocks is well documented.)

The recent rise of the A$ puts the recovery at risk. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is now under pressure to cut interest rates even further (presently at a record low of 2%) and reduce the demand for the A$. Such action might return the A$ to the US70c mark where price competitiveness can be maintained.

SBS cover the story here

This story is relevant to VCE and IB students equally. VCE students need to understand the movement of the exchange rate and the influence it can have on achieving economic goals and policy. For IB exchange rates are an integral part of their study of the international economy and the link between exchange rates and monetary policy is an example of the constraints on policy making and the limits of monetary policy in particular.

Consumer sentiment dips - what is the significance?

Consumer spending makes up the largest part of Aggregate Demand (AD) in virtually any economy. In Australia is is roughly two-thirds of AD or GDP.

We know that disposable income is a primary determinant of consumer spending (C = a + cY), but there are other factors that affect it. A really important one is consumer confidence. When consumers feel that the future holds security in terms of jobs and income they are prepared to spend a higher proportion of their current income and borrow more money.

When consumer confidence is low we can expect households to be cautious. They spend a lower proportion of current income, 'just in case' and repay debt rather than borrow more. This will lead to lower overall consumer spending. This will naturally impact on AD, and so GDP and so economic growth.

The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment is the best known measure of consumer confidence in Australia. In March it fell by 2.2% to a figure of 99.1. When the figure is less than 100 it means that on balance there are more pessimists than optimists.

While such a move is not a signal that AD and so GDP will fall it does mean that growth will be slower than it would otherwise have been.

Uncertainty is usually the cause of low consumer confidence and these figures point to uncertainty on economic policy, a view that the property market might not be such a good investment and volatile financial markets all contributed to lower confidence.

This fall in consumer confidence is a demand side factor that will influence the Australian economy. It is a drag on Aggregate Demand because consumption is such a large component of it and will influence policy makers, such as the RBA, when it comes to interest rate decisions.

Macro business report the data in detail here 

This article is very important to VCE students who need to keep track of this data throughout the year and be able to discuss demand side influences on the economy and policy. IB students will recognise this as an important example to use when talking about AD, how it influences the economy and the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy.

ACCC aims to prevent market dominance

One of the roles of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) is to ensure that too much monopoly power isn't created through mergers or acquisitions. A often quoted example of too much monopoly power is the retail grocery sector in Australia.

Coles and Woolworth's dominate the grocery market with around 80% market share. While this is actually falling as chains like Aldi enter the market by world standards this is a very high share for two companies. The potential for consumers to pay higher prices, or suppliers to be 'bullied' is significant.

Therefore the ACCC is looking at the possibility of Coles acquiring greater market share in the ACT by buying nine Supabarn stores. Although the 'big two' have a lower market share in the ACT than in the rest of Australia (Coles has just 21% of the ACT market) the ACCC don't think it's a good idea to allow Coles to increase their share by as much as they wish to.

The ACCC won't block the entire deal, but will insist some stores of the Supabarn chain go to other retailers. This will allow some of the smaller players to grow and increase competition in the market. That's good for consumers.

The final ACCC decision is expected on Thursday.

The International Business Times covers the story here

This article is relevant to both IB and VCE students on the matter of market structure, concentration ratios and policy to reduce market failure.

Growth in Australian economy 'not that bad'

Everyone knows that the mining boom is over. The non-mining sector is doing its best to save the economy from recession, but who actually gave it much hope?

Recent figures show that the Australian economy is growing much faster than we thought and 3% for 2015 isn't unreasonable. Of course this is at the lower end of Australia's growth target, but given the collapse of commodity prices and the decline in mining investment it is a nice surprise.

The Guardian have provided another excellent survey of economic data in the article linked below.

Notice that net exports are now a significant contributor to Australian growth. This is not from mining, but the non-mining sector. The depreciation of the Australian dollar has helped competitiveness and we are now seeing the 'J-curve' effect and confirmation that the Marshall-Lerner conditions apply.

Of course consumer spending (the largest contributor to GDP) and housing continue to be important. Should consumer sentiment drop there is still a danger of recession.

A good look through the data is advisable to all students, and you can play with the interactive graphs.

The Guardian article is here

This article is essential reading for VCE Economics students. Understanding the influences on the Australian economy over the last four years (demand and supply side) is critical. For IB this article shows how a depreciation in the exchange rate has worked through to higher net exports as well as providing important examples for both Paper 1 and 2.

Australian interest rates left at 2%

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left interest rates (cash rate) at 2% for the tenth month in a row. This is news despite the apparent lack of action.

The RBA has weighed the forces on inflation and decided that at present the best thing is to keep rates as they are. It is clear from their statement, linked below, that the forces acting on inflation presently cancel each other out, rather than point to general stability.

This is always a problem with monetary policy. Some indicators point to higher inflation, others to lower. It is a central banks job to look ahead and decide which force is stronger. Typically a central bank looks two years ahead because that is how long a change in interest rates takes to affect inflation (due to the length of the transmission mechanism).

For Australia there are signs of some growth in the non-commodity sector, and this is helping the employment level. However other signs show downward pressure on demand. The RBA has decided to 'wait and see',  but indicate that there may be a lowering of interest rates in the future if the economy does show it needs more help. This, in practical terms, means they will wait until inflation is projected to be above or below target in two years and at present there is too much uncertainty on this.

Below is the RBA statement on keeping rates on hold. It's quite short, but you should identify the competing forces operating on Australian inflation.

The RBA statement is here

This article is vital reading for VCE students who must know how monetary policy has operated over the last four years and be very clear on demand and supply side factors affecting inflation and policy decisions. IB students need to understand the operation of monetary policy in some detail and so this represents a perfect example.