Wednesday 14 December 2016

US raises interest rates

The US Central Bank, The Federal Reserve Bank, (the Fed) has raised interest rates in the US from 0.5% to 0.75%.

This may not seem like much, but for the fact this is only the second rise in ten years. (Note that 0.25% is the usual change in rates around the world.) It reflects the recovery of the US economy from the deep problems caused by 'The Great Recession' and signs that Aggregate Demand  and economic growth is picking up.

Note the factors which the Fed have cited as reasons for the rise. Clearly not everything is going really well, but AD is rising. They also seem to be taking account of the fiscal boost President-elect Trump is proposing.

Why should the Fed act now when inflation is so low (below target) and Trump has yet to unleash his 'hope for the best' economic policies on the USA and the world? The answer lies in the 'long and variable' lags in monetary policy. It will take at least 18 months for this interest rate rise to have full effect, and possibly two years. 

Another Chairman of the Fed, William McChesney Martin famously stated that the job of the Federal Reserve is "to take away the punch bowl just as the party gets going",  recognising the long lags in policy. (That is raise interest rates early in the upward part of the business cycle and not wait until inflation is already rising.)

US Federal Funds Rate December 2005 to December 2016


This article is about monetary policy and how decisions are made. AD/AS analysis can be applied to it and analysis of why the decision has been made can be discussed.

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