The pessimism that abounded prior to the latest employment numbers is making a lot of people look stupid.
True the resources boom is ending and the uncompetitive industries of Victoria and NSW will continue to decline. But the numbers say the economy is fine.
The Age have an unusually detailed analysis of the data which means I don't need to spend much time on it. However look for:
Total employment
Percentage unemployment - and understand the definition - particularly how the workforce is defined
Look at the participation rate - why does this matter?
The state by state breakdown - why do states perform differently?
Monthly figures are volatile, don't expect a a similar rise in employment next time. But look at the TRENDS - it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that unemployment at 5.1% to 5.4% since last July is broadly stable.
As total employment has risen there must be steady growth too. (Remember with productivity increases around 1% growth is needed just to maintain employment.)
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